PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

tomsir

0x630519aed8ebc5e0e08a95f4e83b0ae541c09d0b

Realised P&L
$-16.4k
Volume
$1.04M
Markets traded
191
Open portfolio
$262.37

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded191
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? · No0.3320.205$74.06$45.94
Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes0.3240.068$63.00$237.00
Metamask FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes0.6580.050$52.62$647.38
Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes0.1500.027$37.80$172.20
Will Zcash reach $800 by December 31, 2026? · No0.7050.820$34.90+$4.90
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET · Down0.3210.000$0.00$429.68
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET · Up0.3070.000$0.00$12.22
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.6450.000$0.00$3.3k
Spread: France (-3.5) · France0.3500.000$0.00$1.5k
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on February 5? · Yes0.6570.000$0.00$500.00
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner · KT Rolster0.3070.000$0.00$1.2k
Over $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale? · Yes0.1400.000$0.00$100.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET · Down0.1330.000$0.00$149.50
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? · No0.8360.000$0.00$100.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET · Down0.4200.000$0.00$49.26

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-25 08:45Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.641$2.0k
06-25 08:26Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?BUY0.6519999999$1.3k
06-23 14:15Spread: Portugal (-1.5)BUY0.6799999994$186.98
06-23 14:14Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?SELL0.85$190.23
06-23 09:28England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5BUY0.6199999997$428.71
06-23 09:27Spread: England (-1.5)BUY0.62$3.5k
06-22 19:07Spread: France (-3.5)BUY0.35$700.00
06-22 19:07Spread: France (-2.5)BUY0.56$1.5k
06-22 19:05Spread: France (-5.5)BUY0.1$50.00
06-22 19:05Spread: France (-3.5)BUY0.3499999998$800.00
06-22 19:03Spread: Argentina (-1.5)SELL0.999$4.4k
06-22 07:29Spread: Argentina (-1.5)BUY0.4$774.92
06-22 07:29Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.42$806.88
06-22 07:28Spread: Argentina (-1.5)BUY0.4$983.58
06-21 18:14Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?BUY0.6899999999$1000.00
Trader tomsir · PolyBot