0xfcb034ffesa540c81ad37321212f6e0c762feac8
0x64c8ec47e1f5a367f234a74f8176d805e87173ce
- Realised P&L
- $-193.4k
- Volume
- $10.03M
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $97.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$118.5kat 0.780Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$51.1kat 0.849Another Iran strike on Israel in 2024?
- +$32.5kat 0.943Will Biden finish his term?
- +$28.2kat 0.680Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$19.4kat 0.903Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:38 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.14 | $256.79 |
| 08-02 21:27 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.5k |
| 08-02 21:25 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.7k |
| 07-31 17:57 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.177626986 | $2.3k |
| 07-31 17:56 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.1783814956 | $3.0k |
| 07-31 14:34 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.16 | $135.52 |
| 07-31 14:34 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.16 | $93.42 |
| 07-31 08:54 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $100.53 |
| 07-31 08:53 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $196.76 |
| 07-31 06:18 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $378.79 |
| 07-31 06:18 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $863.62 |
| 07-31 05:16 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $1.3k |
| 07-31 02:26 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.17 | $33.20 |
| 07-31 02:26 | Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.18 | $72.60 |
| 07-30 19:23 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.2040678128 | $855.84 |