PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ImNotBetting

0x686d5bfc5aee6aaed7bf6a11baef5b57e57d1a68

Realised P&L
$1.5k
Volume
$74.1k
Markets traded
872
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded872
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration5.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? · Yes0.2150.925$71.26+$54.72
Will Dee Valladares win Big Brother season 28? · Yes0.0940.265$70.23+$45.32
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state? · No0.1880.375$59.97+$29.97
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary? · No0.2760.825$59.81+$39.81
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0560.087$54.50+$19.45
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%? · Yes0.0730.347$52.14+$41.14
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle? · Yes0.0980.274$44.69+$28.69
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more? · No0.5530.790$42.16+$12.66
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0450.093$41.16+$21.16
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28? · Yes0.0830.172$39.53+$20.53
Will 4 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries? · Yes0.3140.285$36.33$3.67
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.0370.029$34.28$8.71
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? · Yes0.1320.295$33.41+$18.42
Will Ohio (Special) have the closest Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.0820.102$30.93+$5.93
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? · Yes0.1960.385$29.53+$14.53

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:51Will Mary Silva advance to the general election for WA-01?BUY0.2300319016$3.00
08-02 22:51Will Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28?BUY0.0879999226$1.00
08-02 22:50Will Bill Walker advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?BUY0.3247732387$7.00
08-02 22:49Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?BUY0.2599999272$2.00
08-02 22:48Will Kshama Sawant advance to the general election for WA-09?BUY0.4899999559$4.00
08-01 23:25Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?BUY0.15$1.50
08-01 23:03Will Melissa Chaudhry advance to the general election for WA-09?BUY0.0594235365$1.00
08-01 23:01Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by 8–12%?BUY0.0103831847$1.00
08-01 22:58Will Kamala Harris win the South Carolina Democratic Presidential primary?BUY0.16$1.50
08-01 19:48Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%?SELL0.12$4.01
08-01 19:41Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?BUY0.1799998704$1.00
08-01 19:39Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 20–25%?BUY0.1259999754$4.00
08-01 19:38Will Kamu Kirk win Big Brother season 28?BUY0.0819999311$1.00
08-01 19:38Will Angela Murray win Big Brother season 28?BUY0.089999919$1.00
08-01 19:35Will Cori Bush win the MO-01 Democratic primary by less than 4%?BUY0.0909999255$1.00