mombil
0x68c24bf4a8ad4d79a6fe4b8eec6f93a02dfd1711
- Realised P&L
- $506.0k
- Volume
- $43.20M
- Markets traded
- 2,831
- Open portfolio
- $423.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded2,831
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration38.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$56.5kat 0.138US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$37.6kat 0.618US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$30.9kat 0.343Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$27.0kat 0.640US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$27.0kat 0.479Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 20:00 | Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.95 | $761.29 |
| 08-02 19:59 | Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.9451267488 | $681.62 |
| 07-31 22:07 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.15 | $1.2k |
| 07-31 21:31 | Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | SELL | 0.0285364672 | $4.18 |
| 07-31 20:57 | Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.1k |
| 07-31 20:56 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.2769824305 | $3.4k |
| 07-31 20:55 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.1812604923 | $294.12 |
| 07-31 20:55 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.1211122927 | $714.08 |
| 07-31 20:55 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | SELL | 0.0937907243 | $95.84 |
| 07-31 20:53 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $12.0k |
| 07-30 21:00 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $1.3k |
| 07-30 20:09 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.0k |
| 07-30 19:26 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.031 | $557.36 |
| 07-30 15:03 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.83 | $874.55 |
| 07-30 14:57 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $544.52 |