xm39
0x696de7b6e43f45378f60402b9fccff9c7484f89d
- Realised P&L
- $-63.3k
- Volume
- $984.8k
- Markets traded
- 104
- Open portfolio
- $185.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded104
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration7.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.274 | 0.205 | $185.8k | −$62.7k |
| Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.013 | $96.04 | −$57.62 |
| Suns vs. Bucks · Bucks | 0.460 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$69.00 |
| Spread: Raptors (-3.5) · Suns | 0.465 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$93.00 |
| Nuggets vs. Warriors · Nuggets | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.20 |
| Rockets vs. Knicks · Rockets | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.30 |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) · Timberwolves | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.98 |
| Spread: Warriors (-1.5) · Warriors | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Spread: Nuggets (-11.5) · Nuggets | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spread: Celtics (-17.5) · Nets | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$95.99 |
| Clippers vs. Lakers · Clippers | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.50 |
| Suns vs. Pacers · Pacers | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$33.00 |
| Mavericks vs. Celtics · Mavericks | 0.167 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) · Nuggets | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.20 |
| Hawks vs. Celtics · Celtics | 0.115 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$267.95at 0.354Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$222.35at 0.37776ers vs. Timberwolves
- +$175.00at 0.500Grizzlies vs. Pacers
- +$173.40at 0.290Heat vs. Hornets
- +$151.00at 0.698Pelicans vs. Jazz
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.3k |
| 08-01 10:00 | Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.036 | $39.34 |
| 07-30 06:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $4.5k |
| 07-30 05:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $8.9k |
| 07-30 02:05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.27 | $3.2k |
| 07-30 01:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $4.69 |
| 07-30 01:46 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.28 | $718.80 |
| 07-30 01:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.6k |
| 07-30 01:45 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.0k |
| 07-30 01:43 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $6.30 |
| 07-30 01:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $161.25 |
| 07-30 01:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $2.1k |
| 07-30 01:37 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $1.3k |
| 07-30 01:36 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.6k |
| 07-30 01:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $605.57 |