gambler13
0x73192b9597c4496f8c338b36239bdf4218ac0299
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $2.28M
- Markets traded
- 344
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded344
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.011Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
- +$2.5kat 0.011Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
- +$2.2kat 0.331 Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?
- +$1.4kat 0.502Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.640Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 21:24 | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $9.12 |
| 07-17 18:50 | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? | SELL | 0.1502029743 | $29.90 |
| 07-17 18:23 | Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.1937597323 | $395.44 |
| 07-17 18:23 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.34792017 | $794.08 |
| 07-15 12:36 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.35 | $402.50 |
| 07-15 11:44 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.34 | $13.40 |
| 07-15 11:39 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $218.91 |
| 07-15 11:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $0.50 |
| 07-15 11:36 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.1k |
| 07-13 21:52 | US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $4.81 |
| 07-04 15:21 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.60 |
| 07-04 10:05 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.0072993298 | $21.22 |
| 07-04 10:04 | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.0096335433 | $20.12 |
| 07-01 09:24 | Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | SELL | 0.9803817765 | $77.04 |
| 06-30 19:29 | Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | BUY | 0.051 | $1.44 |