Altria
0x793d214fd47833e96d6abdf866ae62512fd18720
- Realised P&L
- $-16.0k
- Volume
- $802.0k
- Markets traded
- 152
- Open portfolio
- $100.91
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded152
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? · No | 0.550 | 0.555 | $100.91 | +$0.91 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.67 |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.31 |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$729.66 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.432Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.174Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?
- +$1.2kat 0.529US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?
- +$791.24at 0.422US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?
- +$688.78at 0.425US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 00:15 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.55 | $100.00 |
| 08-03 00:13 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.0062863628 | $87.05 |
| 08-03 00:13 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.03407168 | $42.59 |
| 08-03 00:12 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.0193474686 | $98.67 |
| 07-28 01:40 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.008 | $71.02 |
| 07-28 01:10 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.016 | $8.00 |
| 07-28 01:09 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.0170225989 | $15.07 |
| 07-28 01:08 | Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.02 | $36.07 |
| 07-28 01:07 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $43.37 |
| 07-26 11:11 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $6.00 |
| 07-25 11:00 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.0174530564 | $5.28 |
| 07-25 04:11 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.0459859674 | $49.12 |
| 07-25 02:43 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $39.42 |
| 07-25 02:41 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.0524631563 | $7.03 |
| 07-25 02:38 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $250.00 |