0x7bac8d6d5ed709831d6bd3a91d3b3f2a013fa84e
- Realised P&L
- $-12.09
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 620
- Open portfolio
- $17.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded620
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · No | 0.999 | 0.974 | $5.16 | −$0.13 |
| Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? · No | 0.999 | 0.972 | $5.14 | −$0.15 |
| Will CopperTech Metals not IPO before September 2026? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.985 | $5.01 | −$0.07 |
| Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? · Yes | 0.999 | 0.340 | $1.80 | −$3.49 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8PM ET · Down | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.36 |
| Will Trump endorse Andrew Cuomo for NYC Mayor? · No | 0.999 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.74 |
| Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? · Yes | 0.990 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.44 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - November 3, 3AM ET · Down | 0.790 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.66 |
| Will Kahrabaa Ismailia FC win on 2026-05-04? · No | 0.970 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.56 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.72at 0.750Meta (META) Up or Down on November 20?
- +$0.59at 0.900Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on November 26?
- +$0.25at 0.956Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
- +$0.24at 0.957Will Intuit Q3 Online Ecosystem revenue be above $2.45B?
- +$0.24at 0.960Will Valencia win on 2025-11-01?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 23:55 | Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? | BUY | 0.9809998787 | $5.08 |
| 07-04 03:55 | Will LeBron James sign his next NBA contract on July 4? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.07 |
| 07-03 15:55 | Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.07 |
| 07-03 03:55 | Will Spencer Pratt concede by July 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.07 |
| 07-02 23:55 | GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $5.07 |
| 07-01 23:55 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 1? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.07 |
| 07-01 21:01 | Will CopperTech Metals not IPO before September 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.08 |
| 06-30 16:57 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? | BUY | 0.98 | $5.05 |
| 06-30 11:55 | Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9989998152 | $5.06 |
| 06-30 10:55 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.06 |
| 06-30 03:55 | Will the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $566,000 and $570,000 on June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.06 |
| 06-28 23:55 | Will "Supergirl" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.11 |
| 06-28 23:55 | Will "Supergirl" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.06 |
| 06-26 16:55 | Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | BUY | 0.9879999984 | $5.06 |
| 06-25 15:55 | Will NIKE Q4 NIKE Branded Footwear revenue be above $6.8B? | BUY | 0.99 | $5.08 |