Pizzaiolo
0x800e6c7432512b84a0b93b55b5030191a98d4595
- Realised P&L
- $94.76
- Volume
- $16.1k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $116.69
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.935 | $52.92 | +$22.92 |
| Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.901 | 0.975 | $22.41 | +$1.69 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.703 | 0.745 | $21.24 | +$1.19 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.830 | 0.945 | $11.39 | +$1.39 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.275 | $7.15 | −$2.99 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.033 | $1.57 | −$8.43 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.198 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$96.49at 0.380Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026?
- +$35.43at 0.439Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
- +$34.77at 0.170Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?
- +$14.32at 0.663Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
- +$9.41at 0.030Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-07 13:17 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.887 | $60.47 |
| 07-07 12:38 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8899999986 | $50.00 |
| 06-21 09:37 | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? | BUY | 0.5299999972 | $30.00 |
| 04-09 17:48 | Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.928689507 | $30.00 |
| 04-08 17:50 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? | SELL | 0.781715 | $15.63 |
| 04-08 17:50 | Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.895 | $8.95 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.60699 | $6.07 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $4.98 |
| 04-08 17:49 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL | 0.41 | $4.10 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $3.90 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.36 | $3.60 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? | SELL | 0.37 | $3.70 |
| 04-08 17:49 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.31 | $3.10 |
| 04-08 17:49 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.47 | $2.76 |