agrarward
0x80cf6712f17249a90d0811201db95c433a4b7611
- Realised P&L
- $-8.1k
- Volume
- $3.60M
- Markets traded
- 1,609
- Open portfolio
- $10.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,609
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration6.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration62.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner · MIBR | 0.999 | 1.000 | $6.4k | +$3.19 |
| Valorant: Cloud9 vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega · Cloud9 | 0.999 | 1.000 | $2.7k | +$1.37 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.989 | 0.883 | $1.1k | −$127.45 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.033Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 11:41 | Counter-Strike: Acend vs 6666 (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group C | BUY | 0.999 | $27.60 |
| 08-02 00:32 | Valorant: Team Envy vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-01 18:43 | Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9121088894 | $1.0k |
| 08-01 18:40 | LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | BUY | 0.9989993613 | $1.22 |
| 07-31 18:54 | Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs STATE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 07-31 13:20 | Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Falcons Force - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $343.55 |
| 07-30 21:28 | Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs | BUY | 0.999 | $2.1k |
| 07-29 00:15 | Counter-Strike: Imperial vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.998999166 | $1.09 |
| 07-28 22:43 | LoL: 9z Globant vs Maze Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 07-27 23:10 | Valorant: BESTIA vs Contra (BO5) - VCL Latin America Finals Playoffs | BUY | 0.999 | $80.64 |
| 07-27 19:43 | LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Bulldog Esports (BO3) - NLC Regular Season | BUY | 0.9989946598 | $18.7k |
| 07-27 19:42 | LoL: Arctic Pandas vs Bulldog Esports - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 07-27 09:11 | LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage | BUY | 0.999 | $20.1k |
| 07-26 10:51 | Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage | BUY | 0.999 | $203.41 |
| 07-26 09:53 | Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Benched gods - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $24.98 |