donotthinktwice
0x819f9aa2e4da899e185762e03690415ea758f3e7
- Realised P&L
- $3.1k
- Volume
- $367.5k
- Markets traded
- 296
- Open portfolio
- $29.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded296
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.1kat 0.446Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$3.2kat 0.736Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$1.6kat 0.804Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
- +$1.3kat 0.476Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
- +$1.1kat 0.468Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:06 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.31 | $4.36 |
| 08-03 00:52 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.31 | $5.29 |
| 08-02 23:55 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.31 | $8.71 |
| 08-02 23:32 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.90 |
| 08-02 23:25 | Will Jared Moskowitz be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.83 | $26.56 |
| 08-02 23:25 | Will Oliver Larkin be the FL-25 Democratic nominee? | BUY | 0.83 | $25.73 |
| 08-02 22:39 | Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.75 | $4.50 |
| 08-02 22:30 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.31 | $23.12 |
| 08-02 17:00 | Will Kendall Qualls win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? | BUY | 0.065102193 | $7.42 |
| 08-02 16:31 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.34 |
| 08-02 16:13 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $6.24 |
| 08-02 15:48 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.08 | $4.00 |
| 08-02 15:44 | Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? | BUY | 0.08 | $15.46 |
| 08-02 13:12 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.77 | $11.55 |
| 08-02 12:47 | Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01? | BUY | 0.31 | $22.01 |