0x820b2612a074a6C3e85fFB968e1ad18F120d4638-1729183570853
0x820b2612a074a6c3e85ffb968e1ad18f120d4638
- Realised P&L
- $-451.97
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 60
- Open portfolio
- $64.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded60
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration14.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$73.46at 0.405Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$58.32at 0.340Taylor vs. Serrano
- +$5.00at 0.500Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$3.33at 0.600Will Trump say "Biden" 10+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?
- +$3.00at 0.500Will Trump say "Kennedy" or "Autism" during the 2026 State of the Union address?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-26 01:13 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999759 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 01:12 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999681 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 01:09 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0729999331 | $1.00 |
| 03-26 01:09 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 01:08 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.1365374113 | $5.00 |
| 03-02 15:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4099999836 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 04:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.529999965 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 04:43 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $10.00 |
| 02-27 14:00 | Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0149999854 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 14:00 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0419999612 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 14:00 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0370000014 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:59 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.859999914 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:59 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.1499998875 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:57 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0619999428 | $1.00 |
| 02-27 13:57 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0749999325 | $1.00 |