vbm
0x8304ada4e1747a1d188d7233b5c047dfce42f086
- Realised P&L
- $-1.3k
- Volume
- $523.5k
- Markets traded
- 3,423
- Open portfolio
- $6.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,423
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration12.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$279.18at 0.023Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
- +$195.65at 0.688Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
- +$170.25at 0.667Will Trump post on X again before election?
- +$163.13at 0.668No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$159.17at 0.628Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 01:14 | New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs | BUY | 0.73 | $7.30 |
| 08-02 01:13 | Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 08-02 01:11 | Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $80B by August 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $28.79 |
| 08-02 01:10 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $3.20 |
| 08-02 01:10 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 08-02 01:09 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $15.60 |
| 08-02 01:09 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.71 | $7.10 |
| 08-02 01:09 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.78 | $39.00 |
| 07-31 16:16 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.09 | $1.80 |
| 07-30 16:54 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.67 | $13.40 |
| 07-30 16:54 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $18.79 |
| 07-30 16:53 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.00 |
| 07-30 16:52 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | BUY | 0.993 | $29.79 |
| 07-30 16:43 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | SELL | 0.988 | $118.56 |
| 07-30 16:43 | Will Russia enter Serhiivka by July 31? | SELL | 0.992 | $9.92 |