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0x83741e1105434080431b598ed6b4e90d8bd99149
- Realised P&L
- $-7.8k
- Volume
- $1.76M
- Markets traded
- 680
- Open portfolio
- $11.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded680
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.6kat 0.070Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$5.4kat 0.081Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
- +$4.6kat 0.070US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.150US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.028Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-03 12:21 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $39.40 |
| 02-03 08:49 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat? | BUY | 0.31 | $1.70 |
| 02-03 05:45 | Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $13.11 |
| 02-02 23:15 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $3.42 |
| 02-02 15:45 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.62 |
| 02-02 10:20 | Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | BUY | 0.73 | $14.60 |
| 02-02 05:06 | Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Feb 28? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 02-02 02:16 | Will Progressive run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? | BUY | 0.91 | $33.67 |
| 02-02 01:39 | Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors? | BUY | 0.87 | $10.17 |
| 02-01 19:44 | Don Lemon charges dropped? | BUY | 0.53 | $77.88 |
| 02-01 15:29 | Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k? | BUY | 0.25 | $18.75 |
| 02-01 15:16 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.37 | $16.28 |
| 02-01 15:16 | Will Israel strike Gaza on February 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $41.80 |
| 02-01 06:42 | Will People’s Party (PPLE) finish in second place by number of seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election? | BUY | 0.72 | $10.74 |
| 02-01 06:42 | Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | BUY | 0.5291534 | $264.58 |