0x83D72b8fAE2f51934c3B71d9f10F137d88c2E8bA-1770866863721
0x83d72b8fae2f51934c3b71d9f10f137d88c2e8ba
- Realised P&L
- $7.4k
- Volume
- $49.1k
- Markets traded
- 31
- Open portfolio
- $380.25
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded31
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? · Yes | 0.231 | 0.140 | $154.53 | −$100.47 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · Yes | 0.261 | 0.105 | $80.35 | −$119.65 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? · Yes | 0.102 | 0.055 | $64.94 | −$55.06 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · No | 0.423 | 0.125 | $59.09 | −$140.91 |
| Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.036 | $19.85 | −$11.15 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.150 | 0.003 | $1.50 | −$88.50 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.161 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$31.00 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 13? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 24? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$210.00 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July? · Yes | 0.085 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.282Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?
- +$2.5kat 0.175Will Israel or the US target Tehran?
- +$2.0kat 0.221Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei
- +$1.7kat 0.296Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
- +$701.39at 0.097Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 21:34 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.2888446199 | $100.00 |
| 07-31 21:32 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in August? | BUY | 0.101636501 | $120.00 |
| 07-31 21:30 | Israel closes its airspace by August 15? | BUY | 0.2613671023 | $200.00 |
| 07-31 21:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.4230782283 | $200.00 |
| 07-29 02:18 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.1504701038 | $90.00 |
| 07-29 02:12 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.0570218528 | $31.00 |
| 07-29 02:10 | Iran full airspace closure by August 15? | BUY | 0.204602197 | $155.00 |
| 07-29 02:09 | Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0570000001 | $31.00 |
| 07-28 01:21 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in July? | SELL | 0.004 | $4.91 |
| 07-28 01:21 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | SELL | 0.011 | $7.97 |
| 07-28 01:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | SELL | 0.046 | $29.68 |
| 07-28 01:19 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July? | SELL | 0.035 | $25.09 |
| 07-28 01:18 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | SELL | 0.0363477417 | $26.97 |
| 07-28 01:17 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.0359356151 | $29.23 |
| 07-28 01:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.0525363922 | $92.61 |