0x84DCc886d0aCd3D2B5232Fe3401Bc123f01A92cB-1772322661916
0x84dcc886d0acd3d2b5232fe3401bc123f01a92cb
- Realised P&L
- $1.5k
- Volume
- $8.96M
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $14.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.983 | $12.4k | +$329.62 |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? · No | 0.840 | 0.860 | $2.3k | +$52.82 |
| Will Piers Corbyn get second place in the Clacton by-election? · No | 0.988 | 0.999 | $60.94 | +$0.68 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.930Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.1kat 0.879Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?
- +$1.0kat 0.850GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?
- +$756.46at 0.963Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$694.97at 0.957Netanyahu out by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 02:30 | Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? | BUY | 0.84 | $2.2k |
| 07-25 17:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | SELL | 0.998 | $4.99 |
| 07-25 17:23 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 22? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 22:49 | Will Piers Corbyn get second place in the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9878360656 | $60.26 |
| 07-16 20:31 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.9537440732 | $4.8k |
| 07-08 05:40 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.957 | $229.68 |
| 07-08 05:39 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.95640606 | $17.2k |
| 06-29 02:27 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.991 | $499.45 |
| 06-25 07:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.946 | $200.55 |
| 06-24 05:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.976 | $196.18 |
| 06-24 05:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.9763987805 | $200.16 |
| 06-23 08:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.94 | $103.40 |
| 06-19 16:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.93 | $17.4k |
| 06-07 23:00 | Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.8k |
| 06-05 23:43 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $11.80 |