0x86A53F577997ef5FAdeb3930Fad30d7d70cEd11A-1765947078598
0x86a53f577997ef5fadeb3930fad30d7d70ced11a
- Realised P&L
- $2.7k
- Volume
- $175.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $314.82
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration61.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration71.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.024 | $223.93 | −$76.07 |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.022 | $90.89 | −$409.11 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.97 |
| Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party? · No | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.5kat 0.699US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.850US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$200.06at 0.867Will To Lam be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?
- +$184.73at 0.295US forces enter Iran by December 31?
- +$157.50at 0.886Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 23:31 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.031483084 | $300.00 |
| 04-04 05:00 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.81 | $12.7k |
| 04-04 04:15 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.85 | $13.3k |
| 04-03 23:56 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.85 | $5.7k |
| 04-03 23:56 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.89 | $7.6k |
| 04-02 02:30 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6991884382 | $6.0k |
| 04-02 02:30 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.0k |
| 04-02 02:29 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.308166845 | $4.2k |
| 03-31 22:08 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.3490220052 | $1000.00 |
| 03-31 12:22 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.2799999999 | $3.0k |
| 03-31 12:18 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.72 | $9.8k |
| 03-25 11:30 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6675280201 | $3.7k |
| 03-25 11:30 | Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? | SELL | 0.9260454148 | $3.7k |
| 03-25 11:29 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.6464504296 | $4.3k |
| 03-16 10:02 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $470.62 |