idkwid
0x91b13b0a8598d55b43e83cadd0e3cd5d66e6cee1
- Realised P&L
- $-5.0k
- Volume
- $787.2k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $14.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.585 | $14.6k | +$125.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.7kat 0.446Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
- +$2.7kat 0.792US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$2.0kat 0.328US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
- +$1.9kat 0.760US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.852Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 08:19 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.58 | $14.5k |
| 06-11 17:43 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.328078142 | $1000.00 |
| 05-10 18:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.1701160017 | $1.4k |
| 05-10 18:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.18 | $1.4k |
| 04-17 20:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.73 | $54.74 |
| 04-17 20:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.75 | $34.45 |
| 04-17 20:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | SELL | 0.7274815358 | $3.9k |
| 04-17 12:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.7486446761 | $10.0k |
| 04-17 11:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.67 | $5.4k |
| 04-17 11:33 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.66 | $44.76 |
| 04-07 22:42 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.5921534621 | $353.45 |
| 04-07 22:35 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? | BUY | 0.8443646627 | $5.5k |
| 04-07 22:33 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.769 | $306.01 |
| 04-07 22:29 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | SELL | 0.338 | $472.42 |
| 04-07 22:03 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.6966886388 | $2.0k |