PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

leCommissaire

0x9238743eeba8bbfe9e85ac7ba2e1e3d77877b73e

Realised P&L
$98.9k
Volume
$3.07M
Markets traded
2,397
Open portfolio
$17.6k

Can you copy this trader?

plausibleNo blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.2%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
CautionMarkets traded2,397
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration15.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration18.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? · No0.8030.885$2.7k+$244.41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.7400.775$1.3k+$59.43
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5490.750$900.00+$241.32
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5820.565$567.72$17.57
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31? · Yes0.4950.555$553.44+$59.83
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? · No0.7110.855$483.59+$81.45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? · No0.5330.565$480.16+$27.24
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31? · No0.8120.900$472.60+$46.26
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · No0.4870.445$470.97$44.33
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.6620.735$370.98+$36.68
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2740.415$332.00+$112.88
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.4330.455$315.87+$15.48
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? · No0.9200.955$295.25+$10.67
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1870.190$282.90+$4.75
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4670.545$272.51+$38.97

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:21Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?BUY0.3$60.00
08-02 22:05Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?SELL0.8$92.00
08-02 22:05Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?BUY0.43$129.00
08-02 21:55Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?SELL0.57$45.32
08-02 21:52Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?BUY0.5498270983$549.82
08-02 21:28US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.49$12.25
08-02 21:27Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?SELL0.65$32.50
08-02 21:03Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?BUY0.62$31.00
08-02 21:02Will Trump and Putin not meet?BUY0.2293333333$34.40
08-02 20:38Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?BUY0.024$7.20
08-02 18:21Will Russia enter Matiasheve by August 31?BUY0.3$30.00
08-02 17:27US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.5$37.50
08-02 17:25Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?BUY0.22$5.50
08-02 15:06Will FK Krasnodar win on 2026-08-02?BUY0.71$10.64
08-02 09:12Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?SELL0.16$4.17