tinman2
0x9baebe30d1cefe0ac5be4be85189c9fa33e95d34
- Realised P&L
- $10.9k
- Volume
- $1.65M
- Markets traded
- 1,374
- Open portfolio
- $12.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,374
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.1kat 0.690Will Biden finish his term?
- +$5.9kat 0.329Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$5.0kat 0.695Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?
- +$3.5kat 0.587US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.647Another Iran strike on Israel in October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.74 | $37.00 |
| 07-31 23:37 | Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $24.60 |
| 07-31 23:36 | Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $0.30 |
| 07-31 23:36 | Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $123.00 |
| 07-31 23:36 | Will UEFA end its FIFA boycott by August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.95 |
| 07-31 23:36 | Will FIFA Sell Equity in the World Cup in 2026? | BUY | 0.984996425 | $137.76 |
| 07-31 21:29 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.34 | $19.72 |
| 07-31 21:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BUY | 0.51 | $25.50 |
| 07-31 21:18 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $12.00 |
| 07-31 09:00 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 3.1%? | BUY | 0.71 | $35.50 |
| 07-31 09:00 | Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.8% and 3.0%? | BUY | 0.299 | $14.95 |
| 07-30 22:25 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31? | BUY | 0.4263144963 | $17.35 |
| 07-30 22:25 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 07-30 21:18 | Amazon 2026 capex above $220B? | BUY | 0.47 | $9.45 |
| 07-30 12:00 | Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 2.5%? | BUY | 0.99 | $9.90 |