0x9D32aD42A0077Da197FaAA861A65346A11250Fb9-1768930807659
0x9d32ad42a0077da197faaa861a65346a11250fb9
- Realised P&L
- $57.2k
- Volume
- $232.6k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $30.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar24.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration42.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.468 | 0.675 | $21.9k | +$6.7k |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.628 | 0.895 | $3.7k | +$1.1k |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.188 | 0.440 | $3.0k | +$1.7k |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.965 | $965.00 | +$65.00 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.340 | $468.74 | +$304.97 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.029 | 0.135 | $14.45 | +$11.37 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.6kat 0.536Over $2M committed to the Bitway public sale?
- +$7.8kat 0.553Over $3M committed to the Bitway public sale?
- +$7.7kat 0.767Fabric FDV above $200M one day after launch?
- +$3.3kat 0.617Over $4M committed to the Fabric public sale?
- +$2.6kat 0.870Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-05 10:52 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $582.50 |
| 05-05 09:48 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $807.53 |
| 05-05 09:48 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $516.91 |
| 05-05 09:48 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.48 | $139.20 |
| 05-04 08:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.8k |
| 05-04 08:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.49 | $446.88 |
| 05-04 08:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.48 | $576.00 |
| 05-04 08:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.47 | $470.00 |
| 05-04 08:35 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $13.80 |
| 05-03 18:30 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.47 | $102.52 |
| 05-03 18:30 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $6.67 |
| 05-03 18:30 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.4596184211 | $174.66 |
| 05-03 18:30 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.45 | $6.53 |
| 05-03 18:24 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.65 | $5.85 |
| 05-03 18:24 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.2 | $171.70 |