MSN999
0xa00bdc20164a66169906c454e4df8476d84c5c3c
- Realised P&L
- $438.89
- Volume
- $80.7k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $101.61
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration82.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by August 31? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.024 | $101.61 | −$106.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$630.37at 0.057Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
- +$134.51at 0.037Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.100Israel closes its airspace by July 24?
- +$-75.45at 0.047Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?
- +$-134.16at 0.042Iran leadership change by July 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 17:29 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.053948493 | $55.00 |
| 08-01 17:28 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.0523729076 | $53.00 |
| 07-31 21:05 | Iran leadership change by August 31? | BUY | 0.0454079589 | $100.00 |
| 07-25 09:59 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | SELL | 0.014955214 | $74.79 |
| 07-23 10:57 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | SELL | 0.022 | $20.48 |
| 07-23 08:29 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | SELL | 0.029 | $11.36 |
| 07-23 08:01 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 07-22 16:53 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.1 | $4.01 |
| 07-22 16:51 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.047304175 | $56.77 |
| 07-21 13:58 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | SELL | 0.06 | $26.28 |
| 07-21 08:01 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.037 | $3.84 |
| 07-20 18:14 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | BUY | 0.046 | $82.80 |
| 07-20 18:13 | Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | BUY | 0.07 | $70.00 |
| 06-18 06:45 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | SELL | 0.71 | $231.37 |
| 06-17 13:25 | Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | BUY | 0.0569760225 | $55.00 |