0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395
0xa2cd4ccda9a1f95949df7a3355c4c2daa0642ba0
- Realised P&L
- $-315.9k
- Volume
- $22.59M
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $1.38M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.873 | 0.945 | $1.38M | +$105.1k |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.881 | 0.675 | $2.9k | −$897.62 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.217 | 0.002 | $41.15 | −$5.9k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · No | 0.008 | 0.001 | $13.75 | −$211.70 |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$225.31 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.235 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$805.2k |
| Epstein suicide note released by May 8? · Yes | 0.076 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
| Did a crypto hedge fund blow up? · Yes | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$129.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$140.5kat 0.719UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
- +$102.2kat 0.983MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
- +$89.0kat 0.876Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
- +$37.0kat 0.948Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$27.3kat 0.988Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 00:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.1288569679 | $938.68 |
| 08-01 23:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.25 | $78.25 |
| 08-01 23:08 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.0081981073 | $225.46 |
| 07-19 21:54 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.3k |
| 07-19 21:54 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.9k |
| 07-19 21:48 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.998 | $1.3k |
| 07-19 21:14 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.996 | $2.5k |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9967072723 | $37.4k |
| 07-19 21:01 | Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $4.2k |
| 07-19 21:00 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.999 | $560.52 |
| 07-19 21:00 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9962178542 | $24.5k |
| 07-19 20:26 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.9792752385 | $80.1k |
| 07-19 17:53 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.93 | $20.9k |
| 07-19 17:53 | Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.93 | $258.7k |
| 07-12 02:40 | UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) | BUY | 0.71 | $248.5k |