PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Nightfr

0xa38e3ee734ca54ee2c926c6dfccd0392c28b5062

Realised P&L
$-2.8k
Volume
$466.8k
Markets traded
668
Open portfolio
$2.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded668
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration29.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? · No0.9740.890$468.63$44.16
Will Rodri join Real Madrid? · Yes0.7020.767$327.85+$27.77
Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? · Yes0.9610.831$164.44$25.74
Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? · Yes0.4400.095$41.78$151.71
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes0.0280.018$9.25$4.75
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes0.0900.135$8.06+$2.69

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 08:36Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?BUY0.924$81.31
07-31 08:35Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.996$176.29
07-31 08:35Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.992$99.20
07-31 08:35Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.991$9.91
07-27 08:24Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.03$2.91
07-27 08:24Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.031$15.32
07-27 08:24Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.032$16.32
07-26 20:08Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?BUY0.99$79.20
07-26 20:07Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid?BUY0.989$29.67
07-26 19:55Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.342$6.84
07-26 19:54Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.344$30.49
07-26 19:53Will Andrea Pirlo be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?SELL0.345$9.66
07-26 11:08Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.955$38.20
07-26 11:08Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.95$125.42
07-26 11:08Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig?BUY0.949$53.37