PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ToadLord

0xa3df2a941dfd47005aaa4942e128ac37312b6f87

Realised P&L
$-50.0k
Volume
$7.88M
Markets traded
157
Open portfolio
$2.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded157
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration96.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.0470.021$2.0k$2.4k
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? · Yes0.0090.000$0.00$14.55
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) · Belal Muhammad0.4640.000$0.00$214.84
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? · Yes0.0500.000$0.00$79.39
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes0.0150.000$0.00$3.5k
Will England win on 2026-07-15? · Yes0.3420.000$0.00$53.59
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00$30.49
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? · Yes0.0060.000$0.00$303.47
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · England0.5350.000$0.00$32.82
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? · Yes0.0180.000$0.00$401.17

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 19:15Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.027$38.74
08-02 18:34Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.026$94.90
08-01 17:54Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.043$91.56
07-31 20:21Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.048$243.67
07-31 20:14Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.001$2.00
07-31 17:39Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.001$25.00
07-31 17:12Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.001$14.73
07-31 15:18Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.002$10.00
07-31 15:16Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0476560286$715.03
07-31 14:53Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.046$2.49
07-31 14:23Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.045$0.62
07-31 11:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.048$9.60
07-31 10:57Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.048$48.00
07-31 10:56Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.047803735$95.61
07-30 22:25Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.051$214.45