ToadLord
0xa3df2a941dfd47005aaa4942e128ac37312b6f87
- Realised P&L
- $-50.0k
- Volume
- $7.88M
- Markets traded
- 157
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded157
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration96.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.047 | 0.021 | $2.0k | −$2.4k |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.55 |
| UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) · Belal Muhammad | 0.464 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$214.84 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$79.39 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
| Will England win on 2026-07-15? · Yes | 0.342 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$53.59 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.49 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$303.47 |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · England | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.82 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$401.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$42.3kat 0.034US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$7.5kat 0.333Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?
- +$1.7kat 0.611US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$799.01at 0.360UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)
- +$752.55at 0.528Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:15 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.027 | $38.74 |
| 08-02 18:34 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.026 | $94.90 |
| 08-01 17:54 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.043 | $91.56 |
| 07-31 20:21 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.048 | $243.67 |
| 07-31 20:14 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 17:39 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $25.00 |
| 07-31 17:12 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $14.73 |
| 07-31 15:18 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.002 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 15:16 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0476560286 | $715.03 |
| 07-31 14:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.046 | $2.49 |
| 07-31 14:23 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.045 | $0.62 |
| 07-31 11:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.048 | $9.60 |
| 07-31 10:57 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.048 | $48.00 |
| 07-31 10:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.047803735 | $95.61 |
| 07-30 22:25 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.051 | $214.45 |