0xA7E96EAcf8BC94118519bF8Ad38E98aC61D94f6c-1764835690707
0xa7e96eacf8bc94118519bf8ad38e98ac61d94f6c
- Realised P&L
- $-11.2k
- Volume
- $346.9k
- Markets traded
- 235
- Open portfolio
- $2.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded235
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration47.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)6.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.430 | 0.075 | $1.3k | −$6.0k |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes | 0.484 | 0.498 | $518.42 | +$15.08 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.195 | $488.67 | −$112.77 |
| Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.055 | $215.65 | −$333.28 |
| Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.029 | $1.14 | −$0.26 |
| Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.502 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.0k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.278Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$4.1kat 0.606Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
- +$2.9kat 0.437Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$2.5kat 0.509Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$1.7kat 0.175Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-25 15:18 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.24 | $247.20 |
| 07-23 18:21 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.484 | $97.19 |
| 07-19 18:48 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3249999974 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 18:45 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 3 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0179999983 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 18:44 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 2 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0599999972 | $20.00 |
| 07-19 18:44 | Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.16 | $50.00 |
| 07-19 18:41 | Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw? | BUY | 0.3224999993 | $200.00 |
| 07-18 19:21 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 07-18 19:19 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.33 | $220.76 |
| 07-18 19:17 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.2141131973 | $229.55 |
| 06-26 07:38 | Will Donald Trump be the 2028 Republican Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.0363276658 | $1.40 |
| 05-15 05:53 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $2.34 |
| 03-21 16:01 | Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $176.51 |
| 03-10 16:49 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3390017891 | $3.05 |
| 03-09 13:35 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | BUY | 0.48 | $67.20 |