ZenBear
0xa88350d4e2b9aa84b1ec3ab6348e27ad8fd631fb
- Realised P&L
- $384.31
- Volume
- $276.0k
- Markets traded
- 209
- Open portfolio
- $5.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded209
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$356.57at 0.359Trump ends taxes on tips before August?
- +$301.97at 0.108Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$292.73at 0.703Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
- +$231.32at 0.421Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
- +$193.66at 0.437Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 06:48 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.29 | $188.50 |
| 07-14 04:53 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $136.32 |
| 07-14 04:53 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $11.88 |
| 07-12 14:28 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.35 | $14.55 |
| 07-12 14:18 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1159201825 | $36.08 |
| 07-08 07:02 | Trump renames ICE to NICE by December 31? | BUY | 0.2191652755 | $13.13 |
| 07-08 06:08 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $219.00 |
| 07-06 08:55 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4488948191 | $100.00 |
| 07-06 08:54 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5099999985 | $100.00 |
| 07-06 08:52 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | BUY | 0.8599999975 | $300.00 |
| 07-06 08:50 | Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5473361151 | $200.00 |
| 07-06 08:42 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $440.00 |
| 07-06 08:42 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $420.00 |
| 07-04 11:07 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $32.00 |
| 07-04 11:04 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.08 | $49.94 |