infolitio
0xaf2830f2dd4dfa32e3dffac60531bb4ba5147f92
- Realised P&L
- $-153.5k
- Volume
- $2.69M
- Markets traded
- 55
- Open portfolio
- $18.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded55
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.5kat 0.321US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$10.3kat 0.070Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$10.1kat 0.665US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$9.0kat 0.139US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$5.3kat 0.790US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 23:38 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.24 | $42.1k |
| 07-29 18:08 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $174.00 |
| 07-29 18:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $642.00 |
| 07-29 18:01 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6076394194 | $15.91 |
| 07-28 18:02 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.62 | $2.6k |
| 07-28 15:41 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.64 | $1.0k |
| 07-23 21:01 | Will "The Hawk: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.1 | $27.00 |
| 07-23 20:19 | Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $650.31 |
| 07-23 17:38 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | BUY | 0.26 | $970.31 |
| 07-16 17:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.024 | $205.51 |
| 07-16 17:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.36 | $1.1k |
| 07-16 17:12 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.041 | $316.85 |
| 07-16 17:10 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $32.4k |
| 07-16 00:18 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.044 | $50.32 |
| 07-16 00:17 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $3.7k |