0xb3348BFdEFcFCae8B926db2A8F4fe91960050e27-1760579258497
0xb3348bfdefcfcae8b926db2a8f4fe91960050e27
- Realised P&L
- $-722.03
- Volume
- $19.2k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $292.99
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.697 | 0.225 | $161.88 | −$339.70 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.075 | $131.11 | −$515.57 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? · Yes | 0.473 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.410 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$298.86at 0.250US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$140.62at 0.440Maduro out by March 31, 2026?
- +$90.51at 0.262US x Cuba military clash in 2026?
- +$41.43at 0.140US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$30.32at 0.550Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-14 01:33 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.6971489097 | $501.59 |
| 03-10 10:05 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | SELL | 0.4761452672 | $201.51 |
| 02-28 23:58 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | BUY | 0.3299999863 | $13.00 |
| 02-28 23:58 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.0060638301 | $12.59 |
| 02-28 21:12 | US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | BUY | 0.2553236672 | $98.00 |
| 02-09 21:49 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $99.62 |
| 01-21 01:26 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3699999996 | $446.68 |
| 01-21 01:25 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1299999995 | $200.00 |
| 01-19 01:36 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.3698023398 | $200.00 |
| 01-18 10:33 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $846.36 |
| 01-17 19:42 | Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1299999985 | $70.00 |
| 01-17 19:38 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | SELL | 0.967 | $70.32 |
| 01-17 19:37 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.9737081259 | $834.12 |
| 01-17 19:36 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $50.00 |
| 01-17 19:35 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? | SELL | 0.998 | $884.12 |