M2sx92kljs42
0xb4f2592e67c333e73c923547cfe05e768180e5fa
- Realised P&L
- $49.2k
- Volume
- $1.71M
- Markets traded
- 511
- Open portfolio
- $109.5k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded511
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration20.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.368Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
- +$6.4kat 0.544Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
- +$4.8kat 0.129Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$4.7kat 0.445Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31?
- +$4.7kat 0.601Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 13:44 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.4099929032 | $2.0k |
| 08-02 06:23 | Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.8087304993 | $828.16 |
| 08-02 04:31 | Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.8349211854 | $211.87 |
| 08-02 04:30 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.3936623329 | $236.48 |
| 08-01 21:24 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | SELL | 0.8114482423 | $7.4k |
| 08-01 21:16 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | SELL | 0.86 | $3.3k |
| 08-01 15:40 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? | BUY | 0.9256804444 | $5.0k |
| 07-31 22:11 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.69 | $1.2k |
| 07-31 15:10 | Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | SELL | 0.170371611 | $167.34 |
| 07-31 13:14 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.4229134429 | $283.06 |
| 07-31 08:19 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | BUY | 0.927 | $1.5k |
| 07-31 08:18 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | BUY | 0.9247362957 | $4.2k |
| 07-31 08:17 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $1.9k |
| 07-31 08:17 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.93 | $2.8k |
| 07-31 07:03 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.0883335553 | $1.1k |