Ronoc
0xb638d7fe12675228351eb363dcebb61774a0e09f
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $9.7k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $469.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-11.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.555 | $409.22 | −$3.69 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.545 | $55.61 | +$5.61 |
| Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.027 | $4.50 | −$45.50 |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance · Mexico | 0.470 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.78 |
| Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advance · Colombia | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.23 |
| Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance · Brazil | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$36.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$117.14at 0.545Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
- +$83.13at 0.590Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance
- +$68.11at 0.524Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$50.33at 0.470United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance
- +$28.20at 0.783Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 23:20 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5599999997 | $198.91 |
| 07-19 18:32 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.56 | $14.00 |
| 07-19 18:27 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.559999999 | $200.00 |
| 07-19 18:27 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.955 | $20.62 |
| 07-19 18:25 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999951 | $119.62 |
| 07-19 13:53 | Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.299999997 | $50.00 |
| 07-18 20:20 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $59.13 |
| 07-17 14:21 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.9259999991 | $20.00 |
| 07-09 00:14 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 9? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.73 |
| 07-09 00:14 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.53 |
| 07-08 22:16 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 9? | BUY | 0.3959044369 | $29.00 |
| 07-08 22:16 | Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8? | BUY | 0.5675406503 | $30.00 |
| 07-08 22:15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $59.38 |
| 07-07 20:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.7699999788 | $20.68 |
| 07-07 20:23 | Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by July 31? | BUY | 0.779999996 | $15.74 |