Humble
0xb6644a21bea104c3a804ffe373d21fae41798669
- Realised P&L
- $-16.3k
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.024 | $3.3k | +$785.98 |
| Will a Democrat win Washington Presidential Election? · No | 0.018 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$202.87 |
| Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? · Yes | 0.252 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.1k |
| Will a Republican win Colorado Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.4k |
| Will 7 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.81 |
| Will a Democrat win Oregon Presidential Election? · No | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$47.80 |
| Will 6 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs? · Yes | 0.104 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$58.69 |
| Rams vs. Seahawks · Rams | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$44.00 |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? · No | 0.096 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.07 |
| Will a Republican win Washington Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$390.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$512.00at 0.451Who will win the VP debate according to polls?
- +$287.99at 0.520Bears vs. Commanders
- +$177.00at 0.410 Will Ohio St. beat Oregon?
- +$146.53at 0.210Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?
- +$83.67at 0.200Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-30 12:36 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $90.00 |
| 07-29 23:01 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $20.00 |
| 07-29 21:47 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.019 | $4.75 |
| 07-28 18:34 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 07-28 16:00 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $8.00 |
| 07-28 15:25 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $200.00 |
| 07-27 11:42 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.02 | $8.10 |
| 07-27 11:42 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0199815105 | $361.67 |
| 07-27 10:22 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.019 | $29.45 |
| 07-27 04:36 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.018 | $45.00 |
| 07-19 04:11 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.015 | $62.25 |
| 07-18 23:38 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.015 | $87.16 |
| 07-18 02:43 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.015 | $62.23 |
| 07-18 01:32 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.015 | $16.04 |
| 07-16 22:15 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.014 | $313.03 |