0xb7cd09ac4efe3d69ef7bfe65d97831b34790631b
- Realised P&L
- $-304.43
- Volume
- $1.4k
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $17.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-21.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration48.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration55.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? · Yes | 0.499 | 0.484 | $9.71 | −$0.29 |
| Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.885 | $3.97 | +$0.74 |
| World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Result · Argentina | 0.530 | 1.000 | $3.77 | +$1.77 |
| Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? · Yes | 0.095 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 21? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.01at 0.872Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
- +$11.83at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$5.55at 0.782Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.00at 0.999Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$-0.13at 0.610Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-20 16:41 | World Cup Finals: Coin Toss Result | BUY | 0.5299998781 | $2.00 |
| 07-20 16:37 | Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 21? | BUY | 0.0828912467 | $5.00 |
| 07-20 16:32 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.88 |
| 07-18 23:21 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6099999863 | $8.02 |
| 07-18 22:32 | France vs. England: Team to Win | BUY | 0.4690920573 | $205.99 |
| 07-14 21:11 | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | SELL | 0.999 | $126.01 |
| 07-14 21:10 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.999 | $25.54 |
| 07-14 20:30 | Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.0952380952 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:20 | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.9009900981 | $100.00 |
| 07-14 20:09 | Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Spain? | BUY | 0.1499999887 | $10.00 |
| 07-14 20:03 | Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $10.00 |
| 06-29 21:52 | Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999554 | $3.23 |
| 06-29 17:48 | Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.699999972 | $5.00 |
| 06-29 14:47 | Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot? | BUY | 0.4992052652 | $10.00 |
| 06-27 13:38 | Trump out as President by June 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.00 |