altsaredead
0xbcbd91ee01fc760b8e56e3e1622d13189d83ef5e
- Realised P&L
- $3.7k
- Volume
- $31.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $13.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.440 | $5.0k | +$2.1k |
| Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.715 | 0.895 | $3.9k | +$782.63 |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.507 | 0.675 | $3.0k | +$757.08 |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.163 | 0.340 | $967.13 | +$503.45 |
| Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.965 | $646.22 | +$50.22 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.135 | $340.27 | +$17.65 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? · Yes | 0.765 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$399.96 |
| Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? · Girl | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$150.50at 0.570Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?
- +$112.82at 0.780Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" at his press conference?
- +$31.17at 0.973No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
- +$-166.00at 0.200Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 08:50 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.46 | $447.24 |
| 07-24 08:50 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.36 | $190.15 |
| 07-24 08:49 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.04 |
| 07-24 08:49 | Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.34 | $49.30 |
| 06-15 12:46 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.097 | $2.16 |
| 06-15 12:46 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.096 | $4.03 |
| 06-03 04:16 | Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.42 | $390.60 |
| 06-03 04:14 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.1289711664 | $295.21 |
| 06-03 04:13 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.123 | $1.35 |
| 06-03 04:13 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.128 | $10.34 |
| 06-03 04:13 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.127 | $4.47 |
| 06-03 04:13 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.127 | $3.07 |
| 06-03 04:12 | Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.123 | $1.97 |
| 05-15 07:45 | Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.73 | $729.99 |
| 05-15 07:43 | Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.51 | $549.20 |