PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

altsaredead

0xbcbd91ee01fc760b8e56e3e1622d13189d83ef5e

Realised P&L
$3.7k
Volume
$31.3k
Markets traded
12
Open portfolio
$13.9k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar11.9%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded12
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration51.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes0.2540.440$5.0k+$2.1k
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes0.7150.895$3.9k+$782.63
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes0.5070.675$3.0k+$757.08
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes0.1630.340$967.13+$503.45
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes0.8900.965$646.22+$50.22
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? · Yes0.1280.135$340.27+$17.65
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? · Yes0.7650.000$0.00$399.96
Bieber Baby: Boy or Girl? · Girl0.3400.000$0.00$200.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 08:50Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.46$447.24
07-24 08:50Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.36$190.15
07-24 08:49Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.35$7.04
07-24 08:49Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?BUY0.34$49.30
06-15 12:46Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.097$2.16
06-15 12:46Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.096$4.03
06-03 04:16Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?BUY0.42$390.60
06-03 04:14Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.1289711664$295.21
06-03 04:13Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.123$1.35
06-03 04:13Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.128$10.34
06-03 04:13Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.127$4.47
06-03 04:13Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.127$3.07
06-03 04:12Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?BUY0.123$1.97
05-15 07:45Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.73$729.99
05-15 07:43Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?BUY0.51$549.20