diaonilaomunongshanghang10
0xbd4da459d1621c4ed842ecd33cca8fe8ba651c7e
- Realised P&L
- $1.6k
- Volume
- $86.5k
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $235.59
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.142 | 0.525 | $84.36 | +$61.49 |
| Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? · Yes | 0.279 | 0.305 | $60.77 | +$5.22 |
| Will Lyft (LYFT) Q2 rides be above 265M? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.245 | $33.20 | −$4.53 |
| Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by August 31? · Yes | 0.347 | 0.485 | $32.01 | +$9.08 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-06 House seat? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.035 | $9.98 | +$2.35 |
| Will LI.FI launch a token by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.780 | 0.790 | $3.95 | +$0.05 |
| Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? · No | 0.800 | 0.765 | $3.83 | −$0.17 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? · Yes | 0.356 | 0.158 | $3.15 | −$3.98 |
| Will Spotify say "World Cup" during earnings call? · No | 0.820 | 0.515 | $2.58 | −$1.52 |
| Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.266 | $1.67 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$173.53at 0.280Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%?
- +$98.31at 0.299Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$85.08at 0.128Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?
- +$82.83at 0.186Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
- +$82.70at 0.292Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 02:29 | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by August 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.00 |
| 08-03 02:28 | Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by August 31? | BUY | 0.3398765432 | $27.53 |
| 08-03 02:25 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027? | SELL | 0.2102383109 | $44.11 |
| 08-02 23:05 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $30.60 |
| 08-02 14:44 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $2.25 |
| 08-02 14:10 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.3 | $2.25 |
| 08-02 13:55 | Will Carvana announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.311 | $7.00 |
| 08-02 13:55 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.069 | $1.20 |
| 08-02 13:54 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.1572658386 | $27.73 |
| 08-02 13:38 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.101 | $6.97 |
| 08-02 13:35 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.177 | $3.54 |
| 08-02 13:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $7.50 |
| 08-02 13:27 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.19 | $8.50 |
| 08-02 13:26 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.1673134236 | $8.15 |
| 08-02 13:19 | Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%? | SELL | 0.17966675 | $7.19 |