doublede28
0xbd6a9d546c5e9ae7c7000c7ca381d209b8567f2c
- Realised P&L
- $221.89
- Volume
- $14.8k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $196.34
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.116 | 0.022 | $60.94 | −$261.46 |
| Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.250 | $56.17 | −$13.48 |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.115 | $41.23 | −$55.58 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.095 | $38.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$269.99at 0.460US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?
- +$209.00at 0.303U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?
- +$151.63at 0.620Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
- +$127.35at 0.762US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
- +$92.00at 0.540Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-07 10:53 | Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+? | BUY | 0.61 | $52.46 |
| 04-07 10:44 | Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.32 | $80.00 |
| 04-02 16:44 | US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120? | SELL | 0.73 | $73.00 |
| 03-20 16:06 | Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $104.40 |
| 03-20 16:04 | Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $108.00 |
| 03-18 14:33 | Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $352.00 |
| 03-16 18:46 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in March 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $12.86 |
| 03-16 18:39 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.747 | $200.94 |
| 03-13 19:44 | Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? | BUY | 0.44 | $44.00 |
| 03-13 19:41 | U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $29.30 |
| 03-10 20:32 | US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | BUY | 0.81 | $23.65 |
| 03-10 19:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | SELL | 0.49 | $12.74 |
| 03-07 21:03 | U.S. strike on Somalia by March 7? | BUY | 0.75 | $15.34 |
| 02-13 20:58 | Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $40.26 |
| 02-13 20:58 | Polymarket surpasses Robinhood on Similar Web in 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $13.20 |