PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

fdg

0xbd6d646b2c713ce7459afcb1502f34c30f93ed0b

Realised P&L
$12.9k
Volume
$986.1k
Markets traded
800
Open portfolio
$6.4k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded800
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration74.6% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · Yes0.5730.905$4.8k+$1.8k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.2570.192$383.00$131.20
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · No0.4080.983$282.71+$165.29
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes0.1320.198$201.40+$67.25
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0770.086$173.84+$17.28
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.2T and 1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes0.1480.087$114.11$80.71
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.9T and 1.2T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes0.0720.092$93.18+$20.95
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0900.085$85.00$5.00
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4100.345$64.87$12.24
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? · Yes0.3950.565$62.14+$18.74
Will Western Digital (WDC) Q4 exabytes shipped be above 240? · Yes0.2060.605$39.69+$26.17
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0410.025$36.32$22.07
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.4300.065$33.09$185.73
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 0.6T and 0.9T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? · Yes0.0030.028$14.45+$12.72
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0260.029$14.25+$1.25

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-24 05:19Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.0820854701$38.42
07-23 04:21Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.1307168405$52.63
07-23 04:21Over $30M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.3019758905$182.62
07-22 22:59Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.058$2.10
07-22 22:59Over $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.0573809178$6.33
07-22 02:05Over $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.0687558553$13.36
07-21 21:22Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.0697818166$31.98
07-21 18:55Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.1269655591$16.74
07-21 18:22Over $17.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.163$32.60
07-21 18:21Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.039$4.68
07-21 18:20Over $20M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.3044435184$109.58
07-21 18:10Over $2M committed to the TownSquare public sale?BUY0.4$48.00
07-21 17:36Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.0510427529$1.96
07-21 17:35Over $15M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.05$18.55
07-21 06:21Over $7M committed to the RipCars public sale?BUY0.275293683$7.45