PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xbF4d202382

0xbf4d202382ba5702721a8c43126f5f08163733ed

Realised P&L
$43.5k
Volume
$6.60M
Markets traded
428
Open portfolio
$31.7k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded428
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration59.4% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration43.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.5830.575$13.7k$181.18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · Yes0.9031.000$4.2k+$399.42
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No0.8610.785$2.8k$265.57
Israel military action against Yemen by July 31? · No0.8840.989$1.6k+$171.62
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · Yes0.9660.993$1.3k+$35.98
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.7180.725$1.3k+$13.22
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.1630.085$1.1k$1.1k
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes0.7640.999$1.0k+$240.58
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · Yes0.8170.890$840.58+$68.79
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? · No0.9390.898$808.19$36.90
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · Yes0.9560.986$630.72+$18.56
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2730.262$588.94$23.78
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2580.150$328.30$237.16
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · No0.7800.800$322.09+$8.05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No0.7600.715$185.90$11.70

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 23:10US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?SELL0.79$38.23
08-02 23:09US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?SELL0.7902112933$337.26
08-02 23:09US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?SELL0.791007599$522.55
08-02 22:57US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.73$26.13
08-02 22:56US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.73$7.30
08-02 22:56US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.73$26.28
08-02 22:50Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.252$68.43
08-02 22:49US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.74$223.87
08-02 22:49US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.73$21.75
08-02 22:48Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.275$16.50
08-02 22:48Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.276$4.14
08-02 22:48US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?BUY0.72$28.62
08-02 22:47Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.2600909091$28.61
08-02 22:47Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.2650322581$82.16
08-02 22:46Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?SELL0.267$2.67