ShayaEredyon
0xcd09c7f5132a160b41578a79a9e3453da7aeda63
- Realised P&L
- $-90.7k
- Volume
- $1.13M
- Markets traded
- 87
- Open portfolio
- $33.3k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded87
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.055 | $30.3k | −$63.0k |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes | 0.639 | 0.295 | $1.6k | −$1.8k |
| US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? · Yes | 0.258 | 0.145 | $924.75 | −$717.94 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.045 | $427.22 | −$1.3k |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.064 | $46.62 | +$0.76 |
| Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? · No | 0.735 | 1.000 | $44.82 | +$11.87 |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$46.57 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$22.4kat 0.550US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$4.4kat 0.838US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$1.0kat 0.956Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$554.18at 0.893Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$371.32at 0.930US government shutdown Saturday?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-01 18:45 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.07 | $32.31 |
| 05-01 18:43 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $66.60 |
| 05-01 18:41 | Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | SELL | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 05-01 18:41 | H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 05-01 18:40 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $108.00 |
| 05-01 18:39 | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | SELL | 0.14 | $116.98 |
| 05-01 18:37 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $10.80 |
| 05-01 18:37 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $54.00 |
| 05-01 18:37 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $36.00 |
| 05-01 18:36 | Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | SELL | 0.994 | $9.94 |
| 04-17 13:02 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $360.00 |
| 04-17 13:01 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $429.26 |
| 04-16 20:22 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $340.00 |
| 04-16 20:19 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.032 | $535.05 |
| 04-16 11:49 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | SELL | 0.031 | $69.60 |