PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

armads

0xce1d15f4ab2e11cca6fefe4fe7d70889e6531b9b

Realised P&L
$24.5k
Volume
$3.16M
Markets traded
257
Open portfolio
$83.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded257
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration80.4% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.6990.585$67.3k$13.1k
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4400.345$15.5k$4.3k
Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No0.9390.978$236.47+$9.43
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? · No0.9250.933$214.35+$1.97
Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? · No0.8730.955$161.04+$13.75
Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No0.9590.985$156.51+$4.07
Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No0.9830.994$86.32+$0.91
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3980.000$0.00$1.2k

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-15 20:53England vs. Argentina: Team to AdvanceSELL0.0514367931$51.44
07-15 20:53Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.018$90.00
07-15 20:19Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.331271635$662.54
07-13 17:37Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.98$88.20
07-13 17:35Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.999$201.72
07-13 17:31Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.999$271.73
07-10 07:08Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.9495238095$199.40
07-09 15:28Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.9362504687$49.94
07-09 15:28Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.9392619926$254.54
07-09 15:27Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.7813043478$269.55
07-09 15:26Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale?BUY0.93$18.60
07-08 08:29Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?SELL0.04$400.00
07-06 21:28Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.62$804.24
07-06 21:16Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.62$1.6k
07-06 21:15Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?BUY0.61$123.85