armads
0xce1d15f4ab2e11cca6fefe4fe7d70889e6531b9b
- Realised P&L
- $24.5k
- Volume
- $3.16M
- Markets traded
- 257
- Open portfolio
- $83.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded257
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes | 0.699 | 0.585 | $67.3k | −$13.1k |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.345 | $15.5k | −$4.3k |
| Hurupay FDV above $50M one day after launch? · No | 0.939 | 0.978 | $236.47 | +$9.43 |
| Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch? · No | 0.925 | 0.933 | $214.35 | +$1.97 |
| Hurupay FDV above $30M one day after launch? · No | 0.873 | 0.955 | $161.04 | +$13.75 |
| Hurupay FDV above $100M one day after launch? · No | 0.959 | 0.985 | $156.51 | +$4.07 |
| Hurupay FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.983 | 0.994 | $86.32 | +$0.91 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.398 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.2k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.8kat 0.578US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$19.4kat 0.712Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?
- +$18.7kat 0.698US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
- +$16.6kat 0.533US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$16.5kat 0.718Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-15 20:53 | England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | SELL | 0.0514367931 | $51.44 |
| 07-15 20:53 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.018 | $90.00 |
| 07-15 20:19 | Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.331271635 | $662.54 |
| 07-13 17:37 | Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.98 | $88.20 |
| 07-13 17:35 | Over $12M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.999 | $201.72 |
| 07-13 17:31 | Over $10M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.999 | $271.73 |
| 07-10 07:08 | Over $8M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.9495238095 | $199.40 |
| 07-09 15:28 | Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.9362504687 | $49.94 |
| 07-09 15:28 | Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.9392619926 | $254.54 |
| 07-09 15:27 | Over $16M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.7813043478 | $269.55 |
| 07-09 15:26 | Over $6M committed to the Credible public sale? | BUY | 0.93 | $18.60 |
| 07-08 08:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.04 | $400.00 |
| 07-06 21:28 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.62 | $804.24 |
| 07-06 21:16 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.6k |
| 07-06 21:15 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $123.85 |