Nixh58
0xcf105dfba79612fd9d888534cf10752c0abe7feb
- Realised P&L
- $-237.92
- Volume
- $3.02M
- Markets traded
- 235
- Open portfolio
- $90.63
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded235
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? · Yes | 0.351 | 0.275 | $67.38 | −$18.52 |
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.183 | 0.075 | $23.25 | −$33.65 |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.247 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.40 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$175.62at 0.162Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
- +$67.95at 0.047US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?
- +$60.37at 0.007Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$52.78at 0.115Pacers vs. Thunder
- +$47.71at 0.860Lighter Airdrop on December 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-11 16:47 | Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $56.04 |
| 05-22 23:05 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $82.80 |
| 05-16 15:18 | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.61 | $54.90 |
| 03-07 16:12 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $342.58 |
| 03-07 16:11 | Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $257.11 |
| 03-04 18:11 | Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.008 | $8.37 |
| 03-04 18:06 | Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.009 | $337.69 |
| 03-02 22:55 | Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.009 | $396.68 |
| 03-01 13:51 | Kings vs. Lakers | BUY | 0.1399999787 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 13:51 | Pelicans vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 13:51 | 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.2399999674 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 13:48 | Thunder vs. Mavericks | BUY | 0.1199999808 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 13:47 | Cavaliers vs. Nets | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 03-01 13:44 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.008 | $208.36 |
| 03-01 13:39 | Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.008 | $0.00 |