pika2zero
0xcfdceaac4912b9a56ce2d837269270c0bff85a2e
- Realised P&L
- $-115.04
- Volume
- $362.1k
- Markets traded
- 978
- Open portfolio
- $10.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded978
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$583.68at 0.890MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$330.84at 0.522US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$286.96at 0.647Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
- +$286.16at 0.190Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$252.02at 0.173Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 19:54 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.42 | $65.52 |
| 08-01 19:50 | Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? | BUY | 0.40369218 | $141.03 |
| 07-31 09:10 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $31.92 |
| 07-30 19:05 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.1414285714 | $0.99 |
| 07-30 06:13 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $72.91 |
| 07-30 06:10 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6199999628 | $5.00 |
| 07-30 06:10 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5599999253 | $3.00 |
| 07-29 19:00 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $3.60 |
| 07-29 18:58 | Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $98.80 |
| 07-29 18:57 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.53 | $530.00 |
| 07-28 09:41 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $120.00 |
| 07-27 12:08 | Israel election: will Likud lose seats? | BUY | 0.85 | $2.00 |
| 07-27 12:08 | Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30? | BUY | 0.954999384 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 12:06 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3499998775 | $1.00 |
| 07-27 12:06 | Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.5209999557 | $2.00 |