0xD512f1092543dbA882AA2c594127118A720079B3-1768846424397
0xd512f1092543dba882aa2c594127118a720079b3
- Realised P&L
- $2.9k
- Volume
- $1.48M
- Markets traded
- 205
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded205
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.3kat 0.433US downs another Iranian drone by February 28?
- +$4.0kat 0.046US strikes Iraq by February 28?
- +$2.9kat 0.311Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?
- +$1.5kat 0.582Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?
- +$1.1kat 0.125Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-31 07:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 07:36 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.001 | $20.00 |
| 07-28 16:19 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.3603729497 | $100.00 |
| 07-28 15:42 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.3618110417 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 13:27 | Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? | BUY | 0.1767987058 | $100.00 |
| 07-27 11:22 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.3529105203 | $700.00 |
| 07-25 18:40 | Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | BUY | 0.3533618102 | $200.00 |
| 07-25 11:58 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.07995767 | $79.96 |
| 07-25 11:10 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0819014833 | $49.14 |
| 07-25 10:20 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.08610445 | $86.10 |
| 07-25 01:53 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.032 | $32.00 |
| 07-24 16:19 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $100.00 |
| 07-24 09:41 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.0423387596 | $60.00 |
| 07-22 21:00 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0784883687 | $20.00 |
| 07-22 13:08 | Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | BUY | 0.039 | $100.00 |