PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

0xD512f1092543dbA882AA2c594127118A720079B3-1768846424397

0xd512f1092543dba882aa2c594127118a720079b3

Realised P&L
$2.9k
Volume
$1.48M
Markets traded
205
Open portfolio
$4.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded205
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration46.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · Yes0.3300.304$1.9k$160.47
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes0.0360.023$418.48$229.93
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? · Yes0.3500.255$383.66$142.80
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.0920.075$377.50$85.48
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? · Yes0.3290.175$187.75$165.25
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No0.7690.830$177.23+$13.07
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1270.075$126.81$88.29
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0020.002$105.58$40.33
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0040.002$88.46$155.33
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0850.506$65.39+$54.39
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0020.003$49.90+$3.93
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.3200.155$46.19$49.17
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0040.003$39.40$23.64
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.2350.158$34.18$16.82
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · Yes0.0050.002$31.45$69.21

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-31 07:55Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.001$10.00
07-31 07:36Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?BUY0.001$20.00
07-28 16:19Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.3603729497$100.00
07-28 15:42Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.3618110417$100.00
07-27 13:27Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?BUY0.1767987058$100.00
07-27 11:22Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.3529105203$700.00
07-25 18:40Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?BUY0.3533618102$200.00
07-25 11:58Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.07995767$79.96
07-25 11:10Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.0819014833$49.14
07-25 10:20Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?SELL0.08610445$86.10
07-25 01:53Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?SELL0.032$32.00
07-24 16:19Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.1$100.00
07-24 09:41Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.0423387596$60.00
07-22 21:00Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0784883687$20.00
07-22 13:08Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?BUY0.039$100.00