0x8973b817F9b946b8C9D5a328e347eD1629B6dA21
0xd54d374fe05e4d79ea6250cfe80696add6ae1adc
- Realised P&L
- $-789.65
- Volume
- $72.4k
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $723.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration37.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration75.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metamask FDV above $3B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.302 | 0.068 | $547.89 | −$1.9k |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.044 | 0.024 | $136.42 | −$118.38 |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.027 | $39.66 | −$185.31 |
| Will TWTR be delisted from the NYSE by December 30? · No | 0.182 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.0kat 0.258US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$754.69at 0.134Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66?
- +$390.29at 0.540US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$289.86at 0.394Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$101.43at 0.565Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-02 20:53 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $352.84 |
| 02-02 20:53 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $47.43 |
| 02-02 20:51 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.5 | $340.24 |
| 01-31 14:42 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $88.58 |
| 01-31 14:41 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $83.31 |
| 01-31 14:41 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.72 | $1.7k |
| 01-18 20:25 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.2119878215 | $264.58 |
| 01-18 20:20 | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.199399946 | $560.83 |
| 01-17 16:47 | US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $1.6k |
| 01-15 03:51 | Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $34.42 |
| 01-15 03:48 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $390.00 |
| 01-15 03:47 | Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? | SELL | 0.2508643402 | $325.65 |
| 01-14 23:54 | Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3486055742 | $50.00 |
| 01-14 21:11 | US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? | SELL | 0.4692405772 | $469.23 |
| 01-14 21:11 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $600.00 |