Kostik13
0xd69a27d60f8065b82bc8cfd4dd4cc6b7516a5b92
- Realised P&L
- $-42.77
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $433.58
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.635 | $254.00 | +$30.00 |
| Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.412 | 0.230 | $91.99 | −$72.99 |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · No | 0.676 | 0.705 | $49.33 | +$2.02 |
| Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? · Yes | 0.293 | 0.105 | $24.76 | −$44.43 |
| Hyperliquid listed on Binance in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.135 | $13.50 | −$45.50 |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? · No | 0.647 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.47 |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? · No | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.81at 0.879Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
- +$8.00at 0.920Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-03 09:33 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.677 | $6.77 |
| 06-03 09:15 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.676 | $20.96 |
| 06-03 09:11 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 06-03 09:10 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.56 | $112.00 |
| 06-03 09:09 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.56 | $56.00 |
| 01-07 07:30 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.038 | $0.57 |
| 01-06 22:13 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.026 | $2.60 |
| 01-06 22:09 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.42 | $19.12 |
| 01-05 16:12 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $4.40 |
| 01-05 08:01 | Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? | BUY | 0.3 | $60.00 |
| 01-02 19:41 | Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.41 | $20.50 |
| 12-29 17:26 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $13.50 |
| 12-24 19:43 | Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $92.00 |
| 12-24 17:45 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 12-24 17:38 | Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |