Ofers69
0xd6eaafe43d7ed9ce1ff9ce77ddf5e7d753f3aef5
- Realised P&L
- $-2.6k
- Volume
- $135.3k
- Markets traded
- 86
- Open portfolio
- $322.77
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded86
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.021 | $321.27 | −$731.83 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET · Up | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$810.61 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.32 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? · Yes | 0.040 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.40 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.40 |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$420.38 |
| Iran leadership change by April 30? · Yes | 0.196 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$74.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$671.70at 0.321Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$380.45at 0.368Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$225.72at 0.480US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?
- +$213.92at 0.490Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
- +$196.98at 0.658Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 12:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0589999971 | $18.00 |
| 07-29 12:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.058 | $215.35 |
| 07-26 20:25 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $39.00 |
| 07-26 20:25 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.059 | $118.00 |
| 07-26 20:24 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.058 | $90.90 |
| 07-25 19:56 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.078 | $10.92 |
| 07-25 19:39 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.078 | $46.80 |
| 07-25 19:38 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.074 | $14.18 |
| 07-25 19:37 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | SELL | 0.0167050099 | $71.98 |
| 07-23 17:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? | BUY | 0.0229748259 | $99.00 |
| 07-23 17:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0855324276 | $500.00 |
| 06-13 20:40 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | BUY | 0.0200258875 | $15.00 |
| 06-13 20:40 | Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | SELL | 0.006 | $15.66 |
| 06-13 20:13 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | BUY | 0.009 | $3.78 |
| 06-13 20:13 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | BUY | 0.008 | $10.37 |