PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

ClearMove

0xd7f15d5ebda09853ee778019d5513fca4bef73cd

Realised P&L
$31.4k
Volume
$1.91M
Markets traded
1,084
Open portfolio
$3.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded1,084
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · Yes0.9391.000$599.70+$36.50
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? · No0.1240.115$437.00$34.00
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2900.205$409.99$170.00
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.6380.196$371.45$841.84
Iran leadership change by August 31? · Yes0.0900.024$256.06$708.30
Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · Yes0.1900.105$251.99$204.11
Israel closes its airspace by August 31? · Yes0.2700.200$250.00$87.50
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes0.2100.211$211.50+$1.50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · Yes0.1100.290$178.60+$110.85
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2000.185$148.00$12.00
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.2200.225$112.50+$2.50
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1730.055$102.56$219.67
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? · Yes0.1530.152$76.25$0.53
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.1300.075$75.00$55.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? · No0.0490.017$69.70$129.64

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 19:54Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?BUY0.0384163989$50.09
08-02 15:15Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026?BUY0.015$13.50
08-02 15:14Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026?BUY0.015$60.00
08-02 12:02Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?BUY0.0499494667$149.85
08-02 11:41Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.13$65.00
08-02 11:41Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?BUY0.13$130.00
08-02 10:22US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?SELL0.26$50.69
08-01 19:17US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?BUY0.11$2.61
08-01 13:46Israel closes its airspace by August 15?BUY0.22$6.21
08-01 13:36Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of August 3 2026?BUY0.1$14.00
08-01 00:19Iran full airspace closure by July 31?BUY0.024$24.00
08-01 00:05Israel closes its airspace by July 31?BUY0.01896396$75.86
07-31 22:32Iran leadership change by August 31?BUY0.05682896$56.83
07-30 18:42Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.45$90.00
07-30 18:41Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?SELL0.451$45.10