Retippppaksksk
0xd98e5c8d8de5921fac5b24f92ef913acdee69bb3
- Realised P&L
- $-99.77
- Volume
- $35.3k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)59.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? · Yes | 0.186 | 0.825 | $1.2k | +$961.53 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET · Up | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$98.67 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET · Up | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.85 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? · No | 0.529 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$141.86 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET · Down | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.00 |
| Solana Up or Down - February 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET · Up | 0.280 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.96 |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET · Down | 0.800 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.94 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11AM ET · Up | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$156.52at 0.549Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?
- +$122.32at 0.730Ethereum Up or Down on July 6?
- +$101.66at 0.330Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106K and $108K on July 1?
- +$87.10at 0.770Bitcoin Up or Down on July 4?
- +$82.49at 0.377Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 06:55 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $80.61 |
| 07-08 06:26 | Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7248750446 | $67.17 |
| 06-19 09:07 | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.886 | $28.04 |
| 06-19 09:06 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $41.11 |
| 06-18 20:53 | Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.791999997 | $25.07 |
| 06-18 14:48 | Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999937 | $30.00 |
| 06-09 08:30 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.6853273098 | $22.00 |
| 06-09 08:27 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | SELL | 0.0336659467 | $23.38 |
| 06-09 08:24 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7430546206 | $17.54 |
| 06-09 08:21 | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.079197057 | $55.00 |
| 02-28 18:01 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.5289999994 | $141.86 |
| 02-28 18:01 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $141.86 |
| 02-19 21:09 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math on March 31? | BUY | 0.7048527871 | $124.99 |
| 02-19 19:03 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | SELL | 0.13 | $80.45 |
| 02-17 22:23 | Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6 | $205.54 |