1e6x
0xda2e460c6555463fa5105ecf675e3a65e1746c83
- Realised P&L
- $5.6k
- Volume
- $170.6k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $13.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.3%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.747 | $10.3k | +$6.9k |
| Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.029 | $1.2k | +$263.02 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.100 | $783.31 | +$534.33 |
| Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? · Yes | 0.119 | 0.118 | $736.94 | −$4.43 |
| Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be 36% or higher? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$350.00 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? · No | 0.338 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.05 |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? · No | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.175 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.7k |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) · TheMongolz | 0.458 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.67 |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? · No | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.09 |
| Bucks vs. Magic · Magic | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.77 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.3kat 0.500Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
- +$1.7kat 0.300Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
- +$1.2kat 0.677OpenAI browser by October 31?
- +$898.99at 0.150Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20?
- +$799.20at 0.487Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 4 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-29 22:56 | Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? | BUY | 0.1194112956 | $727.17 |
| 06-12 18:58 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.0251636622 | $638.41 |
| 06-09 05:12 | Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.019709984 | $307.96 |
| 06-09 05:11 | Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.0317867118 | $248.99 |
| 04-12 01:35 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.47 | $940.00 |
| 04-12 01:34 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | BUY | 0.338 | $25.05 |
| 03-28 01:03 | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | BUY | 0.61 | $2.3k |
| 03-28 00:21 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | BUY | 0.1752627184 | $1.5k |
| 03-02 03:45 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.16 | $495.29 |
| 03-02 03:43 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.151462923 | $438.43 |
| 03-02 03:08 | Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.14 | $26.60 |
| 02-28 01:57 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $8.40 |
| 02-17 04:53 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | BUY | 0.15 | $60.95 |
| 02-16 23:48 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by February 20? | BUY | 0.1498464326 | $97.58 |
| 02-16 23:40 | Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by March 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $151.90 |