krechel202
0xdc4e4465fd4682a6deb72ffccb6d016367ebe5b7
- Realised P&L
- $26.6k
- Volume
- $170.6k
- Markets traded
- 61
- Open portfolio
- $7.1k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar15.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded61
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles · Philadelphia Phillies | 0.570 | 1.000 | $7.0k | +$3.0k |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes | 0.954 | 0.982 | $59.20 | +$1.66 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.790 | 0.881 | $17.63 | +$1.83 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.130 | 0.010 | $10.00 | −$120.00 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · No | 0.089 | 0.003 | $4.75 | −$164.25 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.178 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$178.00 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds · Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.5kat 0.380Cardinals vs. Cowboys
- +$6.2kat 0.410New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs
- +$5.7kat 0.350Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
- +$4.3kat 0.520Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
- +$3.4kat 0.520Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 00:26 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.11 | $99.00 |
| 07-31 22:11 | Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds | BUY | 0.55 | $2.75 |
| 07-22 00:41 | Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? | BUY | 0.954 | $14.31 |
| 07-10 16:50 | Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.983 | $39.32 |
| 07-08 16:54 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.968 | $226.16 |
| 06-30 19:23 | Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? | BUY | 0.93 | $62.24 |
| 06-30 19:22 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | SELL | 0.998 | $61.88 |
| 05-14 14:04 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.62 | $137.30 |
| 04-20 07:44 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $71.05 |
| 04-20 07:40 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.9 | $67.50 |
| 04-20 07:40 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.54 | $27.00 |
| 03-13 14:09 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.48 | $24.00 |
| 03-13 14:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.76 | $57.00 |
| 03-11 17:50 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.52 | $413.79 |
| 03-11 17:44 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.52 | $1.6k |